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Finance and Economics


The economic and financial projections presented in the business plan are driven by their underlying assumptions. For this reason, it is important for investors to invest the necessary time to review the veracity and/or plausibility of these assumptions. The assumptions also have to be robust; they should hold over the reasonable range of business realities. For example, if selling two million gallons of ethanol seems plausible, what will be the impact on the financial projections if only half as much is sold? Similarly, if the break-even capacity is 70 percent, what needs to happen for break-even to occur at 65 percent and how plausible are those new conditions? These sensitivity and scenario analyses offer investors a broader sense about the robustness of the assumptions driving the finance and economic projections.

Positive cash flow indicates the company is able to pay for its operations from its operations, marking the beginning of independence. Similarly, the quicker the company is able to exhibit sustained profits, the easier it becomes for it to address some of the risks that may emerge in its environment, e.g., incumbent reaction, sudden change in market environment, etc. But the critical economic indicator in the finance and economic category for an investor is the internal rate of return (IRR) and how it compares with the investor's required rate of return (RRR). The IRR measures the annual compound rate of return that the initial investment in the business can generate and the RRR is the minimum return on investment that an investor requires in order to make a particular investment. The RRR is usually a function of the investor's perception of the riskiness of the business: high risk propositions extract higher RRR than low risk propositions. The assessment of the business up to this point should provide the investor an indication of the threshold RRR the investor is willing to accept. This threshold should be compared to the estimated IRR presented in the business plan and a decision made about the business' ability to address the investor's risk perceptions. AgbizSMART Evaluator® reminds investors to demand information in the estimated IRR so they can compare it to their expected RRR.

The net present value (NPV) is the sum of the discounted projected cash flow from the business for a given period. The assumed discount rate is a major determinant of the NPV and as such potential investors should assess the assumption to determine the plausibility of the discount rate. A larger NPV the better if the assumed discount rate is plausible. When comparing the NPV for different businesses, it is important to specify the assumed discount rate for each of them.

The final finance and economic variable considered by AgbizSMART Evaluator® is the strength of equity position, used to assess the amount of investment desired by the business and the equity level the owners or founders are willing to give up for it. Investors should also assess how much they are putting in (cash and other resources) against the proportion of the business they get (equity position). This measures the true cost of the investment.


 
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