In AgMRC’s January 2017 article, we looked briefly at the national average ethanol yield from October 2014 to October 2016. We took the monthly corn consumption data on fuel ethanol production from the USDA-NASS, and also used monthly fuel ethanol production data from USDA-ERS. That simple calculation indicated the national average ethanol yield set a record high of 3.0 gallons per bushel of corn crush in March 2016.
According to some constructive feedback from the scientific community, it’s difficult to believe 3.0 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn is possible. Chemically, that level would require significantly higher starch corn than currently produced. Yet it’s puzzling to see ethanol yield numbers close to 3.0 gallons per bushel of corn from March 2016 to June 2016. That four-month period shows a distinct pattern of deviations from the time trend line (See Figure 7 in January 2017 report). The purpose of this article is to delve into some interesting data issues in our January 2017 report, and provide reasonable national ethanol yield estimates based on publicly available data.
Although most U.S. ethanol production is consumed domestically, exports are important to the industry, particularly during a large stock backlog. U.S. ethanol exports have a positive impact in the development and expansion of the ethanol industry, with new markets contributing to the economic viability of the industry. Ethanol exports represented 6.8% of total ethanol production during the first 11 months of 2016 (13.966 billion gallons), increasing from 5.5% during the same period in 2015. Ethanol production from January to November 2016 also experienced a 3.0% increase from the same period in 2015.
A life-cycle analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions of corn-based ethanol, conducted by ICF in Washington, D.C., was published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on January 12, 2017. It can be found here.
The spreadsheets listed below provide data and trends for various components of the renewable energy industry. These files are updated with new information each month.
Energy prices and their grain feedstock prices are commodity prices that are vulnerable to large swings over time. This section provides time-series trends in these prices and their relationship to each other. Comparisons are presented for crude oil, diesel fuel and gasoline with corn and soybean prices. These monthly data series include comparisons between energy prices (crude oil, gasoline and diesel fuel) and crop prices (corn and soybeans).
The profitability of production for corn, ethanol, and biodiesel is extremely variable. Due to the volatile price nature of these products and their feedstocks, profitability can change rapidly from month to month. In addition, price variations of co-products such as distillers grains with solubles and the production facility’s energy source of natural gas add to the variability of profits. The models are updated with monthly input and output prices to show the changes in production profitability.
Balance sheets for ethanol and biodiesel, as well as their feedstocks of corn and soybean oil provide insight on available supplies, various sources of demand, and carryover stocks that are left at the end of the marketing year after all demands have been met.
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